COVID 19 And its variants

The virus that causes the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is causing a pandemic in humans around the world. It is spreading easily and quickly to different places, including North America, Europe, Australia, South America, and even Asia. There are now cases of COVID19 in over 100 countries worldwide, more than 25 million confirmed. However, there are two major types of the spread: The first is caused by people coming into contact with each other or through direct physical contact, while the second one is caused by the presence of the virus in a body cavity called the respiratory tract.

The current research is devoted to understanding the evolution of the infection and analyzing the factors influencing it and what we can do to prevent future outbreaks of this very real, deadly epidemic. So far, scientists have studied a handful of important viruses such as influenza, Zika, Ebola, and many others that are responsible for different types of epidemics. But, recently, new research has begun investigating how these viruses evolve in order to become dangerous and resistant, thus being able to predict which ones will continue to spread the most in the future and which are already becoming extinct. This study was conducted in labs on the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics Research (IHMM R). One of the researchers, Justin Krakauer, Ph.D., Laboratory Scientist at IHMM R says that the study is very significant and the results could be very helpful to public health authorities for predicting which viruses would spread most rapidly and why some would remain in circulation longer, and how they will change when needed the most.

The current research is divided into three sections. In the first section, we focus on the SARS coronavirus and explain why we are studying it. Then, the authors look at Covid-19 and explain its spread in our society. Finally, the authors analyze the implications of the study and their predictions about which viruses will spread the most and why. The author’s name is Justin Krakauer but he also works at the laboratory and wrote this paper under the name “Hear the voices behind the data science findings”. He also worked on the previous studies related to Influenza and Zika infections. If you want more details like other papers written by him please reach out to me on Twitter @jessica_krakauer as soon as you can!

The SARS-Cov-2

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a spherical virus surrounded by an outer capsule that forms the surface of human cells known as the plasma membrane. The inner shell consists of proteins called RNA and is tightly covered by lipid bilayers. The outer coat contains proteins called glycoproteins. These form an envelope that protects the RNA and protein inside from enzymes (like proteins of ACE2 and receptor binding domain) by means of fusion.

At least three variants of the virus had appeared in the last few weeks. They all share similar mutations in their genetic codes, but they differ significantly in their transmissibility, their virulence, their pathogenicity. According to the Center for Epidemiologic Studies, at present, the number of cases in Brazil, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom are five times higher than in the rest of the globe. At present, the US leads in the total number of infected cases and deaths. More than 1.8 million individuals have been reported to have tested positive, 5,634 have died after contracting the disease. Around 18 states now report cases and at least 15 states have reported deaths. Even though the rate of transmission is low, both variant and common strains are circulating simultaneously and they are mostly affecting younger adults and people living in areas where the population is denser.

Other than the main variant responsible for the majority of the spread of the infection, other variants have been found, causing at least 50% of the total cases in the UK. At the moment, they are not present in any other country.

The Main Variant

The main variant is a new variant discovered recently. The nucleoprotein, ORF1, is located on the non-covalent part of the spike protein and is believed to help the virus bind specific receptors in human cells and therefore to increase the ability of the virus to enter them and to reproduce itself. This variant has been named B.1.1.7 and it is estimated that it can escape the immune system of the immune system of an infected person and therefore it may spread faster but that is still less severe than other variant strains. As mentioned, the percentage is extremely small compared to other variants but according to some experts, this variant may be more difficult to control and spread even more easily. It is known to spread between 2 to 6 people and then spread to 16 to 30 persons. Some examples are shown below:

As reported in June 2020, the virus was shown to spread fairly well in certain conditions in small spaces such as confined, poorly ventilated rooms and offices, and also in rooms fitted with air conditioners. Another study showed that the risk of catching the virus in certain indoor environments was minimal.

The first case of the new variant was identified in France in December 2020. A man is suspected to be carriers of this variant. Although the new variant is unlikely to kill a person, there are no clear indications that the virus spreads faster. When asked whether this particular variant increases the overall risk of contracting COVID-19; Dr. Joris Van Ranstam of Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and co-investigator of this study replied “I think it does. We are talking about aerosolized particles, which could spread to multiple people. That is really bad because if a lot of people get infected, the whole hospital gets infected.”

The Impact Of Mutations

The mutated version of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.1.7) was identified in England in late 2020 and was spread widely throughout the country. Many more cases of this strain were detected in the UK in January 2021. This led to the emergence of new variants in the spring and summer months when almost every region of the UK was affected. The South East, South West, Midlands, Northern Ireland, and Scotland became hit hard by the virus in January and February when every region was affected. In March, South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe also experienced some of the worst cases of the virus. The discovery and widespread use of the Oxford Vaccine has contributed significantly to the spread of the disease in the UK.

In fact, the spread of the mutation began a month before the vaccine was revealed. The same year that the emergence of new variants started, many British researchers speculated that mutations may spread faster but are more likely to cause harm to people. There were fears that these mutations could lead to death, particularly for older people. Other reasons include the fact that the vaccines have changed the genome so much that some genes will be deleted and some others will become completely inactive. Currently, none of the mutations detected so far have had effect on the vaccine. However this does not mean that the mutations are not deadly and affect the effectiveness of the vaccine, which is now available worldwide.

Other mutations are very interesting to us. Since the novel variant arrived in Japan, the government of Japan has banned flights from the U.S. in response to the danger that it presents. Scientists believe that this variant spread in the most crowded place. All of this happened because the mutant virus was more infectious and was infecting the largest group of people which is considered healthy people. There are no indications that the new variant spread more aggressively, that people who don’t have serious symptoms (with few complications), or that it can cause more severe illness. The new variant is highly infectious but is also causing only a small infection of people who are suffering with mild symptoms. People with comorbidities with chronic health problems or those with diabetes tend to have more severe disease. Due to the increased spread in countries in Asia, many physicians are recommending regular testing for all individuals with symptoms of Covid-19.

Impact on Disease Transmission

The mutated versions of the virus have increased the spread of the disease. For example, a study from China shows that this new variant spreads between two to four times faster than other strains. Two thousand people were diagnosed and they all spread to ten people within two days. Over time, this variant has developed a resistance to antibodies from the flu vaccine. Therefore, due to this variant, all patients with high viral load, especially in high-risk populations will be hospitalized or die. Similar results have been found in the United States and other European countries. Most people infected with this variant have high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and these people have a greater chance of developing an organ failure of the heart, lung, kidney, brain, or liver. The effects of the variant on mortality has yet to be determined, but it seems that the mutations increase the risk of complications, like kidney failures and fatal arrhythmias.

When it comes to people testing positive in the UK, it is generally associated with social events rather than biological origin. About six times more cases were noted on April 14 than the previous week. There are a series of factors that were involved with the outbreak that includes poor housing, overcrowding in restaurants, festivals, weddings and church services, poor ventilation, lack of hygiene and sanitary services. In addition, about fifty percent of deaths that occurred during the pandemic occurred in households, either from natural causes or not. There is no evidence to show that the mutation is more lethal; however it is still necessary to consider the possible impact on the transmission of the disease. In a recent study, researchers have demonstrated that the mutation increases the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines like TNF (Tumour Necrosis Factor), IL-1, and D-dimer, which contribute to a